Persistence vs Sunk Cost
There are lots of times when going after a problem and not getting any/enough traction where people start saying “this is sunk cost fallacy” and doubting whether work should continue in the same direction. The challenge is that any problem worth going after likely will have some setbacks on the path to success. How can you tell the difference? When should you go harder and when should you pivot?
I will admit upfront, my bias is to go harder most of the time. And, that has proven out over most of the biggest breakthroughs in my career. But, there are also times to cut losses. Generally, if you are going after something that has proven successful somewhere - whether a similar technology environment, similar business environment, another country or geography - then it will become a success if you push harder. You may not have found the exact right fit for your specific situation, but you will find success if you persist.
Where there is more ambiguity is when you are pursuing a goal where there is no existing parallel. This is the invention of trains/planes/automobiles/rockets, vaccines, self-driving cars, quantum computing, and the Internet. For many of these things, people found reason in nature to believe that such things could be developed. Planes were inspired by birds, deep learning techniques by the brain, etc. Thank goodness some people have given entire lifetimes to these problems only to come part way and have the next generation reach the breakthrough.
There are two questions to ask when taking on a worthy challenge:
Can I see an example that leads me to believe there will be long-term success?
What is the runway I have for solving the problem?
Most of us have constraints set on us by time and/or money and/or resources. Sometimes the people with the resources can help set a timeline. Knowing how much time you have can help set the tone for how many pivots you have available in the direction you are going. And, these can be good guardrails for when to cut losses. When setting out on such a journey, you should have a sense of how many pivots you have and how you will measure progress along the way. Usually progress helps you understand that you are headed in a good direction. Sometimes, it muddies the water - like when you develop a business that grows quickly and then stalls while missing out on a much bigger adjacent opportunity.
Most of us give up too quickly in life. We try something new and are bad at it and being bad at something isn’t fun. So, we actually tend toward giving up. Once in a while, we pursue sunk costs too far. Usually, this is a situation where the constraints are too tight to allow a breakthrough, timing is wrong, or perhaps the problem wasn’t audacious enough to begin with. Wherever you find yourself on the spectrum between persistence and sunk-cost, I hope that you will find a problem worthy of dedicating many years to - because that is part of what makes being human amazing.